According to a survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country in the third quarter of 2022 has improved compared to both: the second quarter of 2022 and the third quarter of 2021. In the third quarter of 2022, the surveyed Georgian economists positively assessed Georgia’s present economic situation. Their assessment of the present economic situation has significantly improved compared to both - the second quarter of 2022, as well as third quarter of 2021 when the assessment of the economic situation of the respective quarter was negative. The surveyed economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were also positive. Though, their expectations have slightly worsened compared to the predictions made for the next six months in the second quarter of 2022, but have significantly improved compared to the third quarter of 2021, when the economists had negative expectations for the next six months of the respective quarter.

In August 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3.5% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 7.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2020. In 2022, from March to August, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 39,984, which was 37% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 197% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020. In 2022, from March to August, a total of 11,757 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 64% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 258% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.

In the third quarter of every year between 2016 and 2020, the number of international visits to Adjara, on average, amounted to 42% of total international visits to Georgia, while contributing up to 14.9% of all domestic visits. Throughout the past few months, in Adjara in particular and Georgia in general, significant hotel price increases have been evident due to a combination of factors, such as the marked recovery of international tourism, the rapid inflow of Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, higher demand for Georgian tourist destinations among domestic visitors, and a rise in prices for essential goods for hotel maintenance. In the summer of 2022, a significant increase has been observed in average hotel prices compared to the pre-pandemic level in Georgia. Specifically, price increases have been especially apparent in Adjara. Average hotel prices there increased by 16% compared to 2019 and by 25% compared to 2021. Meanwhile, in Batumi, average summer prices compared to the same two years increased by 17% and 23%, respectively.

In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 182 GEL per night in August 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 284 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 122 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in August 2022 was 510 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 727 GEL, followed by Kakheti - 569 GEL, Adjara - 547 and Tbilisi - 538.

Georgia is a country of emigration. Since the mid-1990s, Georgian migration patterns have been characterized as labor emigration driven by socio-economic challenges (high unemployment, poverty, and low salaries). As different studies have indicated, the significant proportion of Georgian labor emigrants reside and work illegally in their host country. The primary motivation for Georgian emigrants is to be able to send money back to their families in Georgia to support them. This bulletin discusses Georgia’s emigration trends and the role of remittances in the Georgian economy on macro and micro levels over the last decade.

Since the spread of COVID-19 at the end of 2019, the ensuing pandemic has caused an economic crisis impacting global food availability and food security. The effects of the pandemic have been aggravated by the war between Russia and Ukraine, two prominent players in global food and agriculture. In Georgia, since July 2021, the YoY price increase for both wheat flour and wheat bread has shown a dramatic increase. The YoY price increase for wheat flour reached an all-time maximum of 36.5% in July 2022, while for wheat bread, it peaked in June 2022 at 36.3%. Finally, considering Georgia’s high dependence on imports from Russia and low self-sufficiency in terms of domestic wheat production, it is crucial that the dialogue between potential trade partners, such as Kazakhstan and Turkey, be intensified in the long run to diversify the wheat market and ensure food security for Georgia.

The Black Sea region is often referred to as a gateway between Europe and Asia, though its potential benefits are far from being fully realized. This is especially true for the naval trade. Meanwhile, the enhancement of maritime transportation and the improvement of port infrastructure becomes more and more desirable if not indispensable for economic development of the region. Recent drastic changes – namely the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has further exacerbated the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are significantly hindering this development. At the same time, it is yet ambiguous how the war might alter the development of maritime trade in the region. Accordingly, this bulletin aims to analyze the pre-war state of the Black Sea region’s logistics, port activity, and shipping connectivity and then provide some insights into the potential impact of the ongoing war.

In July 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 1% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 4.5% compared to the corresponding period of 2020. In 2022, from February to July, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 38,048, which was 38% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 155% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020. In 2022, from February to July, a total of 11,179 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 62% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 215% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.

The Ukrainian authorities have recently presented Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan and while it is indeed important for the Government to have a plan for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, it is also crucial to analyze what instruments the state is using now to survive the war economically and to safeguard business activity, primarily of SMEs. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, martial law has been in effect across the whole territory of Ukraine. Alongside restrictions on the movement of male Ukrainian citizens aged 18 to 60 from their places of residence, the imposition of curfews, and other laws needed to repel the armed aggression and ensure national security, the Ukrainian government has also adopted special laws and measures aimed at supporting business and economic activity in the country. To ensure the resilience of the wartime economy, a significant portion of assistance has already been provided to the Ukrainian government by partner countries and international organizations. Currently, as Ukraine is at the first stage of its recovery plan, also referred to as the “wartime economy” or “urgent/resilience” stage, the total funding needs for 2022 are estimated at USD 60-65 billion.

In Georgia, the average cost of a room1 in a 3-star hotel was 173 GEL per night in July 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 276 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 118 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in July 2022 was 563 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 1001 GEL, followed by Tbilisi - 619 GEL, Adjara - 612 and Kakheti - 522.