In the past few months, significant increases in hotel prices have been evident due to a combination of factors, such as the partial recovery of international tourism, the rapid inflow of Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians since the beginning of the war, a higher domestic tourism demand among Georgians, and the increase in prices for essential goods for hotel services.

Macro Overview aims to review the recent trends and developments of the Georgian economy and sets the stage for what is to come in the approaching months.   Macro overview highlights some of the key indicators in Georgian economy such as inflation, economic growth, and employment. It also explores external sector of the economy, overviewing trends in tourism, trade, remittances and FDI. The publication consolidates and includes analytical pieces from the PMC Research Center’s periodic newsletters, such as economic outlook and indicators series, monthly tourism update, black sea bulletin, employment tracker. It also includes insights about the expectations of businesses and economists about the future of the Georgian economy from our Georgian economic climate and bag indexes.

In June 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 4.3% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 11.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2020. According to the BAG Index Survey, overall, in Q2 of 2022, 29.9% of surveyed companies increased their number of employees, 5.6% recorded a decrease, and 64.5% reported no change. In 2022, from January to June, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 36,584, which was 51% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and 123% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020. In 2022, from January to June, a total of 10,695 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 112% higher than the corresponding period of 2021 and 165% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020.

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the border crossing statistics have revealed significant differences in the number of entries and exits by Russians, Belarusians, and Ukrainians. In May 2022, the gap between the number of entries and exits declined significantly with the number of exists increasing significantly for Ukrainians, while in the same month, for Russians and Belarusians, the number of exits exceeded the number of entries. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, travel receipts from Russia have shown a significant increase, while in March 2022 receipts from Belarus experienced a drastic jump of 552% compared to February 2022 and this high level has been maintained for the following three months.

In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 157 GEL per night in June 2022, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 245 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 110 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in May 2022 was 519 GEL per night. In Guria, the average price was 702 GEL, followed by Kakheti - 575, Tbilisi - 568 GEL and Adjara - 552.

Poverty alleviation remains one of the biggest challenges for the world, including Georgia. The COVID-19 crisis has worsen the problem as many households’ income shrank even further due to the crisis. For instance, according to a public opinion poll conducted by NDI in 2021, 37% of respondents indicated that poverty was the main issue they were facing.  Against this background, we take a closer look at poverty in Georgia and discuss trends and changes therein over the last five years.

In this issue, we overview major economic indicators in the construction sector, construction permits, commercial bank mortgage loans for real estate purchases, and construction-related price indices. In addition to that, the results of the BAG business index survey regarding the sales, sales prices, employment, and factors hindering business activity in the construction sector are also provided.

According to a survey of Georgian economists, the economic climate in the country in the second quarter of 2022 has improved compared to the first quarter of 2022, as well as compared to the second quarter of 2021. With respect to the covered period, the surveyed Georgian economists positively assessed Georgia’s present economic situation. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2022 and in the second quarter of 2021, the assessment of the economic situation for the respective quarters was negative. Thus, in the second quarter of 2022, their assessment of the present economic situation has significantly improved compared to both quarters. The surveyed economists’ predictions for Georgia’s economic situation for the next six months were also positive. In fact, their expectations were much more optimistic compared to the predictions they made for the next six months in both the first quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2021.

In May 2022, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 5% compared to the corresponding period of 2021 and by 14.6% compared to the corresponding period of 2020. From December 2021 to May 2022, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 33,703, which was 67% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020-2021 and 101% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2019-2020. From December 2021 to May 2022, a total of 9,635 vacancies were published in the field of sales/procurement, which was 91% higher than the corresponding period of 2020-2021 and 128% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2019-2020.

As Georgia struggles to overcome various social and economic problems, pensions remain among the country’s central issues. For many years, Georgia’s pension system had comprised only a state pension based on a solidarity principle. However, the state pension had not been sufficient to allow retired persons to maintain acceptable living standards. Therefore, pension system reform was a topic of hot discussion for a long time in Georgia and pertinently, in 2018, a funded pension scheme was integrated into the pension system. The following bulletin will review the key changes that have taken place in the pension system over the last five years.