Since mid-2020, when stringent restrictions were imposed to combat the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation has been running at multi-decade highs in many countries across the globe. In 2022 in particular, inflationary pressures from pandemic-related disruptions were exacerbated by the Russo-Ukrainian War and spiking food and energy prices. In response, central banks implemented different monetary policy approaches in an attempt to stabilize the situation. Against this background, recent inflationary trends and monetary policy approaches adopted by economically diverse Black Sea countries are analyzed and compared in this issue of Black Sea bulletin.

In April 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3.7% compared to the corresponding period of 2022. In April 2023, the share of persons receiving a monthly salary of 2,400 GEL and more amounted to 21.8%, which was 5.7 percentage points more compared to the corresponding period of 2022. From November 2022 to April 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 38,330, which was 18.7% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021- 2022.

Notwithstanding the recent positive tendencies, considerable challenges persist in the Georgian labor market. In this bulletin, we address several of these pressing concerns and provide a comprehensive overview of the labor market including: Labor market key indicators The Beveridge curve analysis Employment by economic sectors and employed foreign nationals Salaries of paid employees Vacancies published on Jobs.ge

In Q1 of 2023, the number of international visits to Georgia reached a total of 1.1 million, which amounts to 79.9% of the corresponding quarter of 2019 (i.e. the pre-pandemic level). In Q1 of 2023, Russia was the biggest source country of visitors to Georgia, amounting to 256,787 visits (exceeding the pre-pandemic level by 1.1%). In Q1 of 2023 the income from international travel reached USD 795.4 million, which is 38% higher compared to the pre-pandemic number. In terms of nationality, the income from Russian travelers was the highest in Q1 of 2023 and amounted to USD 266.4 million - 29% higher than in Q1 of 2019. Notably, according to the National Bank of Georgia, as of 31 March 2023, 35.5% of Russian citizens, 23.7% of Ukrainian citizens, and 44% of Belarusian citizens residing in Georgia were estimated to have been living in the country for one year or intending to stay for more than one year, and their expenditure is not included in the calculations of income from travel.

In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 157 GEL per night in April 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 247 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 115 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in April 2023 was 373 GEL per night. In Kakheti, the average price was 548 GEL, followed by Tbilisi – 452, Samtskhe-Javakheti – 354, and Guria – 328.

The global demand for honey is increasing, driven by consumers' growing preference for natural and organic sweeteners over sugar and other health-damaging artificial substitutes and the global honey market is expected to grow from $8.53 billion in 2022 to $12.69 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 5.83%. Considering that Georgia is known as the land of the oldest honey discovered, and has suitable natural conditions and biodiversity for high-quality honey production, the development potential for the honey production sector in Georgia is high.

In March 2023, the number of persons receiving a monthly salary increased by 3.9% compared to the corresponding period of 2022 and by 8.3% compared to the corresponding period of 2021. From October 2022 to March 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge amounted to 38,836, which was 20.0% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2021- 2022. In March 2023, compared to February 2023, the total number of vacancies published on jobs.ge increased by 19.4%. From October 2022 to March 2023, a total of 7,047 vacancies were published in the field of finance, statistics, which was 42.5% higher than the corresponding period of 2021-2022 and 179.9% higher compared to the corresponding period of 2020-2021.

In 2022, the number of domestic visits amounted to 16.3 million visits, which is 3.6% lower compared to 2021, and 14.6% higher compared to the pre-pandemic number, indicating continuing increased demand for tourist activities from domestic visitors, albeit at a decelerating rate. In 2022, the average nights spent per visit fully returned to the pre-pandemic number, showing the reversal of the behavior of domestic visitors after the growth in the length of stay in 2020 and 2021. The expenditure of domestic visitors reached GEL 3 billion, which is higher both compared to the previous year (by 9.8%) and 2019 (by 61.7%).    In absolute values, in 2022, compared to 2021, the expenditures of domestic visitors on transport (by GEL 75.5 mln),  accommodation (by GEL 43.7 mln), and food and drinks (by GEL 38 bln) increased significantly.

In Georgia, the average cost of a room in a 3-star hotel was 167 GEL per night in March 2023, while the average cost of a room in a 4-star hotel in Georgia was 275 GEL per night and the average cost of a room in a guesthouse was 122 GEL per night. The average cost of a room in a 5-star hotel in Georgia in March 2023 was 456 GEL per night. In Tbilisi, the average price was 559 GEL, followed by Kakheti – 552, Samtskhe-Javakheti – 458, and Adjara –429.

Socio-economic problems continue to represent a significant challenge for Georgia. Specifically, in 2021, 17.5% of the Georgian population fell under the absolute poverty line. By and large, different states typically offer various forms of social assistance (including subsistence allowance) to help the most vulnerable within society. In Georgia, the subsistence allowance program provides financial aid to the country’s poorest families, whose rating score is less than 120,001. The rating score is determined by the social services agency and reflects the family’s income and assets. The lower the score, the poorer the family. However, recent studies have indicated that this program does not help beneficiaries to get out of poverty and that it instead encourages them to maintain a low income to remain eligible to receive the allowance. To address such issues, starting from March 2022, the Georgian government implemented a wide-scale public works employment program for the country’s socially vulnerable citizens. It should be noted that the persons involved in the program will maintain the status of socially vulnerable for 4 years. In this newsletter, we take a close look at the dynamics of the population receiving subsistence allowance. Moreover, the trends with respect to the announced working program are also discussed.