The unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine has shattered the lives of millions of civilians and destroyed dozens of Ukrainian cities. The damage has been enormous, with only some of it economically measurable. While we cannot assess the true cost of thousands of lives being taken, we can approximately measure the damage done to Ukraine’s infrastructure, social, and other sectors, which is discussed in this bulletin alongside the revised 2023 budget for Ukraine.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has stifled the latter’s maritime industry. It has disrupted 15 of Ukraine’s 18 seaports as well as its inland water navigation facilities. As the maritime industry usually plays a crucial part in Ukraine’s external trade, the abovementioned disruptions have hampered the country’s exports markedly. To portray the effects of the halting of operations at Ukrainian ports on both domestic and international markets, it is essential to analyze the significance of Ukraine’s maritime industry and its role in the country’s external trade, the Black Sea, and beyond.
The Ukrainian authorities have recently presented Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan and while it is indeed important for the Government to have a plan for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, it is also crucial to analyze what instruments the state is using now to survive the war economically and to safeguard business activity, primarily of SMEs.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, martial law has been in effect across the whole territory of Ukraine. Alongside restrictions on the movement of male Ukrainian citizens aged 18 to 60 from their places of residence, the imposition of curfews, and other laws needed to repel the armed aggression and ensure national security, the Ukrainian government has also adopted special laws and measures aimed at supporting business and economic activity in the country.
To ensure the resilience of the wartime economy, a significant portion of assistance has already been provided to the Ukrainian government by partner countries and international organizations. Currently, as Ukraine is at the first stage of its recovery plan, also referred to as the “wartime economy” or “urgent/resilience” stage, the total funding needs for 2022 are estimated at USD 60-65 billion.
The sanctions imposed on Russia are unprecedented in their scale and speed. In total, including restrictions already been in place before the 2022 invasion, Russia has been the subject of over 5,000 restrictive measures enacted by 41 countries, which makes it the world’s most sanctioned country. This bulletin provides an overview of the most important sanctions that have been imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and an assessment of the potential effectiveness of those sanctions.
Nearly two years since the outbreak of COVID-19, the spread of the virus itself, vaccination rates, and new variants, continue to shape the speed and strength of economic recovery. In the case of Ukraine, geopolitical and domestic political tensions are also important variables to have been hindering economic growth. In this issue, we provide an overview of the ongoing economic recovery in Ukraine and try to supply an economic forecast for the country for 2022, looking at the performance of each economic sector in the process.
International rankings and indicators help us to understand and assess how countries are performing in different areas. In this bulletin, Ukraine’s positions in international rankings and the dynamics therein are reviewed based on recent data. Its positions will also be compared with other Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, and Moldova).
Total trade turnover in Ukraine amounted to 61.2 bln USD, marking an increase of 14.07 bln USD (29.9%) compared to the corresponding period of 2020;
Ukrainian exports increased by 7.01 bln USD (30.6%) compared to the corresponding period of 2020, while Ukrainian imports increased by 7.06 bln USD (29.2%);
Compared to the corresponding prepandemic period of 2019, Ukrainian exports increased by 5.5 bln USD (22.3%), while its imports increased by 3.01 bln USD (10.7%);
Ukraine’s trade deficit amounted to 1.3 bln USD, which represents a 0.02 bln USD (1.5%) decrease compared to the corresponding period of 2020;
Ukraine’s main trade partners were China, Poland, and Germany, with shares in total trade volume of 14.5%, 7.6% and 6.5%, respectively. Ukraine’s main export partners were China (14.3% of total exports), Poland (7.9%), and Turkey (6%). Meanwhile, its main import partners were China (14.6% of total imports), Germany (8.9%), and Russia (9.1%);
54.4% of Ukrainian exports were concentrated among its top ten partners, while imports were slightly less diversified with the top ten partners responsible for 63.7% of total imports;
Compared with the corresponding period of 2020, a 24.3% decrease in trade turnover with Russia was observed, while significant 33% and 40.6% increases were recorded in the cases of China and the EU.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to represent a major economic shock, causing considerable inflation volatility. The pandemic has been responsible for a substantial decline in inflation rates over the course of 2020 globally. However, this trend underwent a significant reversal in the first half of 2021. In this issue, we overview inflation trends in Ukraine prior to and during the COVID-19 crisis.
The Ukrainian Hryvnia’s exchange rates relative to foreign currencies experienced some noteworthy tendencies in 2016-2021. This period of course includes the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a significant impact on exchange rate fluctuations globally. In this bulletin, we review the exchange rate fluctuations in Ukraine in 2016-2021, as well as some of the key factors affecting it.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent Great Lockdown have affected investment flows all over the globe, especially in emerging markets. According to UNCTAD, global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows dropped by 35% in 2020, to $1 trillion, from $1.5 trillion in 2019. This is almost 20% below the 2009 levels after the global financial crisis. Moreover, the number of newly announced greenfield projects in developing countries declined by 42% in 2020 compared to 2019. To assess the impact of the crisis on the FDI flows in Ukraine, it is crucial to have a snapshot of the pre-crisis situation along with developments in 2020.